Error budget — where it appears
Named by 18 essays across 7 fields — each of them below, with the objects they name alongside it.
Where the control points are
Five rungs fit a library to a map and ask how much to trust the winner. None asks whether the parameters are recoverable at all. On control points along one parallel an equirectangular's standard parallel is not merely hard to find — it is invisible, exactly, and five hundred and twelve points on the same parallel are as blind as eight.
How many triangles it takes
Pricing one triangle left the fact that a survey observes hundreds unaccounted for. Averaging n of them divides the noise by √n, and n is not free: a chain of fixed length holds fewer big triangles than small ones, so the accuracy improves as the side to the power three halves rather than two. Struve's 141 triangles of forty kilometres are worth exactly Gauss's seven of eighty-five.
The weights are a guess the solve believes
Choosing what to hold fixed is a decision inside the least-squares problem that no residual can see. There is a second, made more often and thought about less. Every observation enters with a weight nobody measured, the weights move the coordinates by a factor of 1.8, and the standard check on them can be made to pass by a scaling that moves nothing at all.
The slope of a field that was measured
Three rungs differentiate a formula, which is what makes the projection the only thing under test. A real field is a grid of numbers with an error on each of them, and differencing such a thing divides the noise by the spacing — so a finer grid gives a worse slope, there is a best spacing, and it is the cube root of the noise.
The geoid model stops at a degree
Eleven essays treat the geoid as a surface that exists. Every geoid anybody uses is a series truncated at a degree, so every orthometric height derived from one carries an omission error nobody quotes with the height — eighteen centimetres at degree 360 — and the same truncation removes two thirds of the slope, which does not converge at all.
A long window and a square one
Rung nine held the patch's area and found that where the cut goes still changes the map by a third, with the curvature it encloses predicting the change at r = 0.969. It recorded that it had held area and curvature and not shape. Sweeping the shape at constant area separates two things that had looked like one: the map is curvature and the cost is shape.
What another common point buys
A seven-parameter datum fit leaves a pattern rather than noise. Six per cent of the residual it reports is the transformation's own error and the other ninety-four is distortion no seven parameters can follow — so adding common points improves a term that was already small and cannot touch the one that is quoted.
An ellipsoid computed to a nanometre is known to a decimetre
The meridian series is exact to seventy-six nanometres on WGS84, and WGS84 is exact by definition: its axis and flattening are conventions with no uncertainty at all. The ellipsoid that actually fits the Earth is a measurement, known to sixteen centimetres from equator to pole, and WGS84 puts the pole sixty-seven centimetres away from it. From its second term, the series is more accurate than anything it is used to compute.
The map is finer than the paper it is folded from
Thirteen measurements price a polyhedral map in angles, areas and lengths, and none of them is about paper. A hand-folded net is accurate to about a degree of dihedral angle, which displaces the far edge of a cube's face by 0.955° of arc — 106 km at Earth scale — and that floor does not shrink when the globe is made larger, because a degree is a degree. Against it the conformal face map's seam corner is 0.769° on a cube and 0.0040° on an icosahedron, where it is 165 times finer than the sheet can be folded to.
When the edges do not line up
Rung eight held the cell counts equal so that shape could be compared without the count ratio drowning it, and recorded a doubt: a longitude–latitude source shares its boundaries with a longitude–latitude target wherever their counts share a factor. The mechanism is real and worth a factor of two. It was not what the published number was made of.
A bearing on a sphere is decided by its latitude, not its radius
A sphere that stands in for the ellipsoid cannot be wrong about a direction by being the wrong size, because enlarging a sphere moves no angle. What it can be wrong by is the latitude put on it. Geodetic latitude turns every bearing at 45° by up to 347 arcseconds before anything has moved; the conformal latitude starts exact and drifts 54 arcseconds in a thousand kilometres; and only Bessel's sphere, which changes the longitude too, is exact at every distance.
The road is drawn two pixels wide
Seven rungs measure what a screen map does to position. Nothing on a map is a point: every mark has a width, the width is chosen in pixels, and a two-pixel road covers 9.78 kilometres of ground at the equator and 1.70 at 80° north. That is a generalisation applied at a strength varying by a factor of six across one sheet, by a stylesheet with no latitude in it.
The seam falls faster than the paper
Divide each face of an icosahedron ν ways and two things shrink at different rates. The fold's error falls as 1/ν, because it is the face's own radius times a degree. The gnomonic seam corner falls as 1/ν², because it needs both a tilt between faces and a distance along their edge. So the gnomonic, 12.8 times the whole assembly budget on twenty faces, goes under it at 720 faces on a 100 mm globe. No globe of any size needs more than 5,120, and what it costs is paper folded out of sight: 5.8 per cent of the sheet at that crossing.
The parameters are not independent
Rung seven gives the seven parameters their own uncertainty and stops at seven numbers. There are twenty-eight, and the twenty-one nobody publishes are not small: a translation and the rotation that mimics it correlate at 0.94, the normal matrix has a condition number of 4 × 10¹⁶, and propagating from the diagonal alone overstates the transformation's uncertainty by up to a factor of thirty-six.
An agency can map where its published covariance is optimistic
The local surveys tied to a regional network each estimate, badly, how far the network's published covariance understates the truth, and the agency that receives them can pool what they say. When the understatement is confined to one part of the region, pooling it into one number dilutes it: a patch covering 15 per cent of the region with errors four times their published size reads as 1.30 for the whole. Counted place by place, the same surveys find the patch — two agencies in three find it with 400 surveys and nearly every one with 800, flagging almost nothing outside it. Fed back as one number the scale removes little of the false alarms inside the patch and costs nearly a third of the test's power outside; fed back as a map it cuts the false alarms inside from 20 per cent to 3 and costs little outside.
The error that does not average down
Five rungs give a coordinate a width, and all five assume the observations it was averaged from are independent. They are not. Under the noise spectrum every published analysis of a position time series reports, the standard error falls as the eleventh root rather than the square root — so a factor of ten costs a hundred observations if the noise is white and a thousand million if it is not.
A length measured from noisy points is too long
A distance is a square root, a square root is concave, and the average of the distances is not the distance between the averages. The gap is a bias with one sign: 37 microns on a ten-metre baseline with twenty-millimetre marks, following σ² over the length across two decades, and it adds rather than cancelling — so the same boundary is 1.5 parts per million longer when it is measured in more pieces.
Rounding is not noise
Eight rungs treat a coordinate's error as noise that averages down. A published coordinate has a second error that does not: it is deterministic, it is shared between every point in the same cell, and at five centimetres apart ninety-three per cent of pairs come out as the same place — which no amount of independent noise can produce.
Named alongside it
The objects these essays reach for when they reach for this one.
VerificationPrecisionToleranceConditioningLeast-squaresNoiseResolutionStandard errorAveragingConformalityDatumResidual