Cartographic Projection
every map is wrong, and by exactly how much
Concept

Noise — where it appears

The part of a measured value that is not the quantity, stated as a standard deviation and carried through every calculation that uses it. Differencing multiplies it by the reciprocal of the spacing, so a derivative taken from noisy samples gets worse as the grid gets finer.

Named by 17 essays across 6 fields — each of them below, with the objects they name alongside it.

Bigger triangles, and how much bigger depends on what is fixed. How well a survey can resolve Gaussian curvature, against the side of its triangles, under three things being held fixed. One triangle: the accuracy improves as the inverse SQUARE of the side, fitted exponent -2.000. A chain of fixed length, which is what every great arc was: bigger triangles mean fewer of them, and the exponent is -1.503 — exactly three halves. A network covering a fixed area: -0.999, exactly one. The trade depends on what a survey is short of.

How many triangles it takes

Pricing one triangle left the fact that a survey observes hundreds unaccounted for. Averaging n of them divides the noise by √n, and n is not free: a chain of fixed length holds fewer big triangles than small ones, so the accuracy improves as the side to the power three halves rather than two. Struve's 141 triangles of forty kilometres are worth exactly Gauss's seven of eighty-five.

impossibility · Curvature Believing a group takes away the redundancy that would test it. The thirteen degrees of freedom in this network, divided between the two groups, against the weight ratio the adjustment was told. At a ratio of a quarter the edges carry 12.1 of them and at sixteen they carry 0.07. A group's own variance can only be estimated from its own share, so a surveyor who is confident about an instrument has taken away the arithmetic that would have caught the confidence. The two curves sum to thirteen at every ratio, which is the identity that makes this a redistribution rather than a loss.

The weights are a guess the solve believes

Choosing what to hold fixed is a decision inside the least-squares problem that no residual can see. There is a second, made more often and thought about less. Every observation enters with a weight nobody measured, the weights move the coordinates by a factor of 1.8, and the standard check on them can be made to pass by a scaling that moves nothing at all.

practice · Reduction A finer grid makes a measured slope worse. The error in the direction of steepest ascent, against the spacing the field was sampled at, for four noise levels. With exact values the curve falls at a fitted slope of 2.00 — second order, which is what a central difference is. Add noise and the same curve turns over: a finite difference divides the noise by the spacing, so halving the grid doubles the noise in the slope while quartering an error that was already negligible. The minimum is where the two meet, and it is not at the fine end.

The slope of a field that was measured

Three rungs differentiate a formula, which is what makes the projection the only thing under test. A real field is a grid of numbers with an error on each of them, and differencing such a thing divides the noise by the spacing — so a finer grid gives a worse slope, there is a best spacing, and it is the cube root of the noise.

distortion · Gradient What a seven-parameter fit's residual is made of. A published transformation accuracy is the root-mean-square residual at the common points, and here it is 1.51 metres. Almost all of it — 1.51 — is the network's own distortion, which a rigid motion and a scale cannot follow and which is present at every point of the country whether it was used in the fit or not. The transformation's own error, measured as the disagreement between the fitted parameters and the true ones over a clean grid, is 0.091 metres: 6 per cent of the quoted figure. The last bar is the control — the same fit with the distortion switched off, at 2.9e-4 metres.

What another common point buys

A seven-parameter datum fit leaves a pattern rather than noise. Six per cent of the residual it reports is the transformation's own error and the other ninety-four is distortion no seven parameters can follow — so adding common points improves a term that was already small and cannot touch the one that is quoted.

datums · Datum Where the summits are, and where the water divides. A stated range 100 km across and 80 km long, its summits 3,000 m high and about 35 km from the western edge, with a plateau falling gently to the eastern edge. Over 40 km of the range the plateau carries a broad rise up to 18 km east of the summits, and a gorge cuts through the range in the middle of that stretch. The dashed line runs through the highest summits; the solid line is the watershed, computed from the land. Lightly shaded ground drains west. Where they part, the darker ground lies east of the summits and drains west: 331 km², reaching 18.1 km from the summits. The terrain is stated, not surveyed.

The highest summits stay where they are, and the watershed does not

A treaty that puts a boundary on the highest crests which divide the waters names one line where the water divides on the summits and two where a river has cut back through the range. On a stated range the two part by up to eighteen kilometres. They also differ in kind: an error of ten metres in every height moves the summits three metres and the watershed on the plateau more than a kilometre.

practice · Boundary Weighting the low sight turns the region the fix is in. Four bodies, three of them between 44° and 58° up on one side of the ship and one 5° up behind, with each sight's error made of a sextant part of 0.5′ and a tenth of its refraction correction: 0.94, 0.95, 0.93 km for the high bodies and 2.05 km for the low one. Solid: the 95 per cent ellipse of the fit that weights each sight by its variance, 2.30 by 1.55 km. Dashed: the ellipse a navigator draws who gives every sight the same variance, 2.63 by 2.02 km, its long axis turned 20.1° from the weighted one. Dotted: where that unweighted fix actually scatters, 2.98 by 1.57 km, turned 27.7° from the ellipse drawn for it. All three are centred on one point.

A low sight is worth keeping only if it is weighted

A body five degrees above the horizon is seen through so much air that its refraction correction is ten times a high body's, and a tenth of that correction uncertain doubles the sight's error. Given the same weight as the others, a sight below seven degrees makes the fix worse than throwing it away; weighted by its variance it never does. The ellipse drawn without weights is turned twenty degrees from the right one, and a navigator who must guess the weights loses far less by guessing high.

paths · Position fix Weighted by their residuals, six sights hand the low one six times its share. Six bodies seen from one ship: five between 44° and 61° up between east-north-east and east-south-east, and one 5° up due south, alone in its direction. Along each bearing, two bars: the share of the fix's weight the sight's altitude earns it, and the median share it ends with when every sight is weighted by its own residual and the fit is repeated until the weights settle. The low sight earns 4.0% and ends with 25.0%; the five good ones earn about 19% each and end with 1.8% to 3.1%. Bar length goes as the square root of the share.

Weighted by what it disagrees with, the fix trusts the sight it leans on

With six sights and two unknowns, the residuals seem to offer a way to find the bad sight without knowing the weather: weight each line by how little it disagrees, and solve again. One step of that gives a low body almost exactly the weight its altitude would, 4.5 per cent against 4.0. Every further step walks it away. Iterated until the weights settle, the fit is worse than weighting nothing in all four arrangements tried. Where the low body stands alone in its direction it ends with six times the weight it earns, because the fix leans on its line and its residual shows only 46 per cent of its error.

paths · Position fix A week of twilights learns the refraction share, and one twilight learns almost nothing. The share of the refraction correction that is uncertain, estimated from the residuals of equal-weight fixes pooled over one to fifty-six twilights, each residual corrected exactly for its own fix's geometry; the truth is a tenth. Shaded: the middle eighty per cent of 1,500 seeded weeks for a navigator who always takes one body between 3° and 8°, with its median solid. Dashed: the median for one who takes six bodies anywhere between 4° and 70°. After one twilight the first navigator's middle eighty per cent runs from 0.000 to 0.181; after fourteen, from 0.055 to 0.131; after fifty-six, 0.079 to 0.116. The medians climb to the truth from below: 0.049 and 0.020 after one twilight, 0.092 and 0.088 after fourteen.

A week of twilights learns what a sight is worth

One fix cannot tell how good its low sight was, but every residual of every fix is a point on one straight line whose slope is the square of the refraction share, once each is corrected exactly for its own fix's geometry. After one twilight the estimate is zero four times in ten; after a week it is within half again of the truth nearly four times in five. And the lesson is worth little: a guess within a factor of two already costs under 4 per cent of the fix, a week's estimate 1.3, and a share that changes from night to night by half again costs more than the learning buys.

paths · Position fix Tonight's residuals cost the fix a steady three per cent; the typical share costs more every time the nights differ more. Six bodies a twilight, 3 of them between 3° and 8°, and tonight's refraction share the typical tenth times a factor drawn afresh each night; the horizontal axis is that factor at one standard deviation. The fix error, root-mean-square over 40,000 seeded twilights, as a percentage above that of a navigator who knows tonight's share. Dashed: weighting with the typical share, 0.8 per cent at a factor of one and a quarter, 10.3 per cent at two and 36.2 per cent at three, off the top of the chart. Solid: weighting with tonight's share estimated from tonight's own residuals, 3.6 per cent, 3.2 per cent and 1.9 per cent. Dotted: an even blend of the two, 1.2 per cent, 2.3 per cent and 2.0 per cent. Tonight's estimate beats the typical share from a factor of about 1.56, and the blend from about 1.33.

Tonight's residuals measure tonight's air badly and weight tonight's fix well

A week of twilights learns the typical refraction share and nothing about tonight's, and a share that changes from night to night costs more than the week buys. With the sextant's error taken from the week, one twilight's residuals estimate tonight's share alone — badly: within half again of the truth 43 times in a hundred with three bodies near the horizon, and zero 22 times. Used as a weight, that poor estimate costs the fix between two and four per cent whatever the night, so it beats the typical share once nights differ by more than half again, and a blend of the two, leaning on tonight as the nights grow more variable, beats both. A weather predictor has to explain most of the nightly change to do better.

paths · Position fix The mountain's gravity follows the ground and the root's does not. A profile 260 km long across the stated mountain patch. Top: the height of the ground. Bottom: the gravity at the ground from the terrain's own rock, a sheet at 2,670 kg/m³ (solid), and from a root at 30 km carrying the same mass with the opposite sign (dashed). Over the whole patch the rock's gravity correlates with the height at 0.99, so of its 54.0 mGal rms only 7.8 is not a function of the height under it. The root's, smoothed over thirty kilometres, correlates at −0.85, and of its 10.0 mGal 5.3 is free of the local height. A levelling loop misses by exactly that free part, which crosses the ground's contours.

A levelling loop weighs the root, and a triangle weighs the mountain

A mountain range is carried partly by a root of light crust beneath it, and a survey that knows the ground can ask how much. Put a root thirty kilometres down under a stated range and it moves a levelling loop's misclosure by 85 per cent as much as the mountains' own rock does, and a triangle's excess by 16 per cent: the root's gravity is a smoothed copy of the ground, and a smoothed copy crosses the contours. Read against their noise, pinning the root's share to a tenth takes about 2,700 fifty-kilometre loops, a million triangles or 550 astronomic stations — and if the rock's density is unknown too, a triangle cannot tell a compensated mountain from a lighter one.

impossibility · Curvature A triangle never sees the root against its own noise; a levelling loop sees it until it is deep. For a root at each depth carrying all of the terrain's mass, the rms of each reading's response to it over 160 placements, divided by that reading's noise — the background the root sits in plus the observing error. A 25 km loop: 34.2 per cent at 10 km, 15.6 at 30, 3.9 at 60. A 50 km loop: 37.6 per cent at 10 km, 20.1 at 30, 5.5 at 60. A 100 km loop: 34.9 per cent at 10 km, 20.2 at 30, 6.1 at 60. A 50 km triangle: 3.1 per cent at 10 km, 1.0 at 30, 0.2 at 60. The triangle's response falls with depth more steeply than the loop's, which is what made their ratio look like a gauge of depth, but at every depth it is a few per cent of its noise or less.

A loop reads a root's depth from its own pattern, and a triangle reads none of it

A levelling loop and a geodetic triangle respond to a buried root in proportions that change with its depth, so their ratio looked like a gauge of how deep a range is compensated. It is not, because a triangle's response to a root at 30 km is a hundredth of its own noise. The depth is there in the loops alone: a root changes the pattern of misclosures from loop to loop as it deepens, and 1,600 loops of 50 km place a 10 km root within a factor of 1.5 three times in four and a 30 km root about half the time. A 60 km root is not placed even by 6,400, and when the depth is fitted rather than stated, such a root is read as a light shallow one carrying 25 per cent of the mass where it carries 60.

impossibility · Curvature A season of crossings pins the stretch to a tenth only if it learns from where the streak was. The share of 400 seasons at each length whose learned stretch lies within a tenth of 1.25. From the floors' rank histogram: 25 crossings 19 per cent, 50 crossings 27 per cent, 100 crossings 32 per cent, 200 crossings 43 per cent, 400 crossings 55 per cent, 800 crossings 67 per cent. From where the streak turned out to be: 25 crossings 56, 50 crossings 72, 100 crossings 85, 200 crossings 98, 400 crossings 99, 800 crossings 100. At a hundred crossings, 85 against 32 per cent.

A season learns the stretch from where the streak was, not from the floors

An ensemble whose members spread four fifths as widely as the forecast's real error covers the diversion floor in 94 crossings of a hundred instead of 95, and the repair is to stretch every member away from the centre by a factor learned from past crossings. Learned the way the rank histogram teaches it — from where the truth's floor fell among the members' floors — a season of a hundred crossings lands within a tenth of the right stretch one time in three, and a season of eight hundred two times in three. Learned from where the streak turned out to be, which the analysis after each crossing supplies whether the streak reached the gap or not, a hundred crossings land within a tenth 85 times in a hundred and two hundred almost always. The floor is the quantity the plan is about; it is the wrong quantity to learn the spread from.

paths · Paths A gravity station sees a buried root against its own noise three or four times as well as a loop near the surface, and half again as well at sixty kilometres. For a root at each depth carrying all of the terrain's mass, the rms of each reading's response to it over 160 placements on the stated range, divided by that reading's noise — the background the root sits in plus the observing error. A gravity station (noise 28.6 mGal): 111.5 per cent at 10 km, 38.5 at 30, 9.0 at 60, 1.4 at 100. A 50 km loop (noise 25 mm): 37.6 per cent at 10 km, 20.1 at 30, 5.5 at 60, 0.9 at 100. A 100 km loop (noise 39 mm): 34.9 per cent at 10 km, 20.2 at 30, 6.1 at 60, 1.1 at 100. A 50 km triangle (noise 1.7″): 3.1 per cent at 10 km, 1.0 at 30, 0.2 at 60, 0.0 at 100.

Gravity is worth four loops a station, and the background still hides a deep root

Levelling loops alone place a range's compensating root at ten kilometres three times in four from 1,600 loops, and do not place one at sixty from 6,400. Gravity measured on the ground reads the root's attraction directly, and a station is worth about four loops for a shallow root and two for one at thirty kilometres. It does not place the deep root either: 1,600 stations put a sixty-kilometre root within a factor of 1.5 of its depth in fewer than one survey in five. With the background field taken away, a hundred stations place it every time. What hides the deep root is not the reading but the geoid's own mass that the range does not explain, and either half of its spectrum is enough to do it. Fitted for depth, gravity reads the deep root as too heavy, where the loops read it as too light.

impossibility · Curvature Averaging divides the hand's wander and leaves its habit: a shared part sets a floor no stack goes below. The drift left in the mean of N tracings, as a share of one tracing's, when a stated part of the hand's variance is a habit shared by every tracing: none (thick), a quarter, and half. With none it falls as one over the square root of N, to 25 per cent at sixteen; a quarter shared stops it at 50 per cent, half at 71. Dotted: the drift at which an independent hand's stacks read the strong seam's easing (two tracings, 71 per cent) and the weak seam's (sixteen, 25).

Averaging tracings reads the easing, until the hand repeats itself

One tracing by a drifting hand cannot show how far a copy was eased, because an easing as long as the drift is a stretch of drift. Average several tracings and the easing stays while the drift shrinks: two tracings read the easing's width at the seam where the copy departs strongly, sixteen read it at the seam where it barely departs, and as the drift falls the rigid count starts buying pieces for the easing again while the eased count stays at two. All of that assumes each tracing drifts afresh. A hand that repeats part of its drift in every tracing leaves that part in the mean, where it sets a floor no number of tracings goes below; and a digitiser who learns the hand from the spread between tracings measures only the part that averages away, and charges the mean too little, so that both counts buy every piece they are offered.

wrong · Identify After a revision narrows the ensemble, a learner that never forgets is still well short of the new stretch three hundred crossings later. The stretch each learner holds before each crossing, the median over 400 winters, from 100 crossings before a forecast revision to 300 after it. Before it the members spread 0.8 of the truth's spread and the right stretch is 1.25; after it they spread 0.6 and the right stretch is 1.667 (dashed). never forgets: 1.28 at 25 crossings, 1.34 at 100, 1.44 at 300; memory 200: 1.31 at 25 crossings, 1.44 at 100, 1.59 at 300; memory 50: 1.42 at 25 crossings, 1.62 at 100, 1.68 at 300; restarts on the date: 1.63 at 25 crossings, 1.67 at 100, 1.67 at 300. Shaded: the middle eight winters in ten for the learner with a memory of 50 crossings, 1.55–1.78 at the end.

A revised forecast is relearned in as many crossings as the learner remembers

An ensemble's stretch is a property of the forecast system, and forecast systems are revised. When a revision narrows the members from four fifths of the real spread to three fifths, a learner that weights every crossing since the start of the winter equally still holds 1.44 for a new stretch of 1.67 three hundred crossings later, and leaves the plan under the floor in 93.8 crossings of a hundred instead of 95. A learner that forgets regains ninety-five per cent coverage after about as many crossings as its memory — 31, 57, 113 and 206 for memories of 25, 50, 100 and 200 — and pays for forgetting only when nothing has changed. A memory of fifty costs nothing measurable over a winter. And a bias the whole ensemble shares, which the stretch alone reads as extra spread, is found to a kilometre by a learner that tracks the mean departure as well.

paths · Paths Sixteen tracings by four hands leave half the drift that sixteen by one hand do, unless the hands share a habit too. The drift left in the mean of sixteen tracings of one sheet, as a share of one tracing's, measured over 120 sheets, for sixteen tracings by one hand, eight each by two, four each by four, two each by eight and one each by sixteen. When half of each hand's drift is its own habit (darker): 1 × 16 74, 2 × 8 54, 4 × 4 40, 8 × 2 31, 16 × 1 25 per cent. When a quarter is the hand's habit and a quarter a habit every hand in the office shares (paler): 1 × 16 73, 2 × 8 63, 4 × 4 58, 8 × 2 56, 16 × 1 54. Dotted: 71 and 25 per cent, the drift at which an independent hand's means read the strong seam's easing and the weak seam's.

The spread between hands charges the mean, and an office's habit hides in the sheet

One hand's tracings cannot see the part of its drift it repeats, so a mean of sixteen by one hand is charged for a third of the error it carries. Sixteen tracings by four hands carry half the error of sixteen by one, and the spread between the hands' means, divided by the number of hands, charges that mean correctly to within a fifth on every sheet from three hands on — without ever estimating how much of a hand is habit. The same spread reads a hand's share of habit from two hands of two. What it cannot read is a habit every hand in the office shares: tracings of a sheet with one are tracings of a different sheet without it, and the charge they give falls further short the more hands and tracings are added.

wrong · Identify

Rounding is not noise

Eight rungs treat a coordinate's error as noise that averages down. A published coordinate has a second error that does not: it is deterministic, it is shared between every point in the same cell, and at five centimetres apart ninety-three per cent of pairs come out as the same place — which no amount of independent noise can produce.

distortion · Precision

Named alongside it

The objects these essays reach for when they reach for this one.

VerificationEstimatorLeast-squaresResidualAveragingStandard errorBiasError budgetCorrelationNavigationWeightingConditioning

All concepts