Concept

Averaging — where it appears

Taking a mean of repeated observations, which reduces the standard error as the inverse square root of their number only when they are independent. Under a correlated spectrum it falls far more slowly, and the hours that buy nothing are most of them.

Named by 5 essays across 3 fields — each of them below, with the objects they name alongside it.

Bigger triangles, and how much bigger depends on what is fixed. How well a survey can resolve Gaussian curvature, against the side of its triangles, under three things being held fixed. One triangle: the accuracy improves as the inverse SQUARE of the side, fitted exponent -2.000. A chain of fixed length, which is what every great arc was: bigger triangles mean fewer of them, and the exponent is -1.503 — exactly three halves. A network covering a fixed area: -0.999, exactly one. The trade depends on what a survey is short of.

How many triangles it takes

Rung eleven priced one triangle and recorded that a survey observes hundreds. Averaging n of them divides the noise by √n, and n is not free: a chain of fixed length holds fewer big triangles than small ones, so the accuracy improves as the side to the power three halves rather than two. Struve's 141 triangles of forty kilometres are worth exactly Gauss's seven of eighty-five.

impossibility · Curvature
Two members, their average, and the family's best answer to it. Two equal-area conics at cone constants 0.25 and 0.85, the average of the two, and the member of the family nearest that average — at 0.540, which is not the parameter midpoint. The average is not a conic at all: its parallels are still arcs but they are arcs of circles about different centres, so no single cone constant reproduces it and the residual is 0.1722.

A family is not closed under averaging

Nine rungs treat a family as a set of maps with a parameter running through it, and this collection's own compromise projections are averages of members. An average of two members is not a member: two conics far apart average to something 31 per cent of their own separation outside the family — and averaging within a family makes the map worse every time, while averaging across two makes it 16 per cent better.

families · Families
How aligned a region's ellipses are, for every projection and every region. The resultant length of the doubled indicatrix orientations, over 12 projections and 9 regions. One means every ellipse in the region points the same way; zero means they are spread evenly and cancel. Three cylindrical rows are 1.00 throughout, and everything else varies down the row and across it — which is the answer to the question the number was first stated without: alignment is a property of the pair. Mercator's row is the exception that is not a measurement, because a conformal projection's indicatrix is a circle and a circle has no orientation.

Whether the ellipses point the same way

The previous rung found that alignment decides whether the average of a region's deformations is above or below the deformation of its average, and stated it at ten projections over one region. Swept over a hundred and eight pairs, the answer is that alignment belongs to the projection 28 per cent, to the region 38, and to neither 33 — and two rows of the table turn out not to be measurements at all.

distortion · Tissot
Waiting longer buys almost nothing under the spectrum that is actually there. The scatter of block means against the block length, for the three spectra. White noise falls with a slope of -0.484 — the inverse square root everybody assumes. Flicker falls with a slope of -0.111, so a hundredfold longer average buys a factor of 1.67 rather than ten. A random walk is very nearly flat.

The error that does not average down

Five rungs give a coordinate a width, and all five assume the observations it was averaged from are independent. They are not. Under the noise spectrum every published analysis of a position time series reports, the standard error falls as the eleventh root rather than the square root — so a factor of ten costs a hundred observations if the noise is white and a thousand million if it is not.

distortion · Precision
Two places, one written coordinate. The lattice a coordinate written to 5 decimal places lives on, at 45° of latitude, where a cell is 1.11 metres north to south. Two real places a fifth of a cell apart are drawn as open marks and the single value they both round to as a filled one. The distance between them, computed from what was written, is exactly zero — an error a noise model cannot produce, since independent noise never puts two different points in the same place.

Rounding is not noise

Eight rungs treat a coordinate's error as noise that averages down. A published coordinate has a second error that does not: it is deterministic, it is shared between every point in the same cell, and at five centimetres apart ninety-three per cent of pairs come out as the same place — which no amount of independent noise can produce.

distortion · Precision

Named alongside it

The objects these essays reach for when they reach for this one.

Error budgetStandard errorVerificationClosed formMeasurementNoisePrecisionSurveyAngle deficitAngular deformationAnisotropyBias

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