Cartographic Projection
every map is wrong, and by exactly how much
Concept

Precision — where it appears

How finely a quantity is stated, which is not how well it is known, and on a survey is a ratio between a misclosure and a perimeter. A coordinate's written precision carves the ground into a cell whose shape depends on where it is, and whose worst error barely moves while its aspect ratio does.

Named by 23 essays across 7 fields — each of them below, with the objects they name alongside it.

One pixel at zoom 11: 76.4 m projected, 47.6 m at 51.5°. The grid squares are pixels, at their own size. The open mark is the stored coordinate and the filled one is where it is drawn: rounding moves it 20.2 metres, against a worst case of 33.6 — half a pixel's diagonal, which is the whole of the bound. The second point sits 43 metres away, 0.58 of a pixel east and 0.70 north, so whether the two are drawn as one dot or two is decided by where the tile grid happens to fall: they merge for 12 per cent of the possible offsets, against the 12 per cent the two fractions predict.

The pixel is a place with a size

Drawing a coordinate rounds it to a pixel, which moves it by up to half a diagonal — 16.8 metres at zoom 12. Whether two points 43 metres apart appear as two dots is not a property of the data at all: they merge for 12 per cent of the positions the tile grid could take, and the closed form predicts 12.4.

applied · Screen The same ranking, with the right answer removed from the library. A map drawn in Mercator, fitted by every candidate except Mercator. Something still wins: Conformal conic, by a factor of 1.64 over the runner-up, leaving 0.4 per cent of the map's width unexplained. With Mercator in the library the winner's margin is 1.2e+13. The ranking always produces a name; what tells the two situations apart is how far ahead the name is.

When the answer is not in the library

Fitting twenty candidates to a map and ranking the residuals always produces a winner, which makes it a ceremony unless it can also produce a refusal. Held out of its own library, a Mercator map is named as a conformal conic, leaving 0.4 per cent of the map's width unexplained — and the quantity that tells the two situations apart is not the residual but the margin, which is 1.6 when the truth is absent and 10¹³ when it is present.

wrong · Identify What a 20 mm closure tolerance lets each station hide. A closed traverse of seven stations in plan, each labelled with the angle blunder that would leave the closure inside a 20 millimetre tolerance. An angle error at a station rotates everything downstream of it about that station, so the closing point moves by the distance from the station to the close — and the last station before the close stands 72 metres from it and can hide 57 arcseconds, against 2.1 at the worst-placed station. The check is not insensitive; it is unevenly sensitive, and nothing in the specification says so.

What a closed figure cannot see

A closed traverse imposes exactly two conditions on its observations, so everything else is free — and the freedom is not spread evenly. At a twenty-millimetre tolerance the worst-placed station in a seven-station loop hides an angle blunder of 2.1 arcseconds and the station standing seventy-two metres from the close hides 57, because a rotation about a point near the finish moves the finish hardly at all.

practice · Reduction What the 5th decimal place of a coordinate is worth on the ground. A latitude written to 5 decimal places steps 1.112 m north for one unit in its last digit, at every latitude, because the meridian does not care where it is measured. A longitude written to the same 5 places steps 1.112 m east on the equator and 0.097 m at 85°, because a degree of longitude is a degree of a circle whose radius is R cos φ. The same written precision means two different distances at the same point, and a different pair at every other.

A coordinate is a number with a width

Every number on this site so far has been exact. A written coordinate is not: five decimal places of a degree is 1.112 metres of latitude everywhere and 1.112 metres of longitude only on the equator, falling to 0.097 at 85°. The same written precision carves the ground into a cell that is square in one place and eleven times longer than it is wide in another.

distortion · Precision One instrument, one covariance, drawn where Mollweide puts it. The same measurement is made at every point: 5 m east by 5 m north, uncorrelated, which on the ground is a circle. Each ellipse is that covariance pushed through the projection's own Jacobian and drawn 26,000 times life size. On Mollweide the axis ratio reaches 4.15, so an instrument that is equally good in every direction is drawn as though it were not.

An error ellipse is an indicatrix

A positional covariance pushed through a projection is the same matrix sandwich that produces Tissot's indicatrix, so the error ellipse drawn on a map and the distortion ellipse drawn beside it are the same ellipse. A five-metre circular accuracy is drawn at an axis ratio of 3.04 on one common projection — and the same projection draws a genuinely lopsided 304 by 100 metre error as a perfect circle.

distortion · Precision The signal, and four instruments' noise. The spherical excess of an equilateral triangle at 45° north against its side, with the standard deviation of a measured excess — σ√3 — ruled for four instrument accuracies. A fifty-kilometre triangle, which is about the largest anybody routinely observed, has an excess of 5.49 seconds of arc. A theodolite reading to one second gives that excess a standard deviation of 1.73 seconds, so the measurement carries about three significant bits. Everything in this rung follows from that ratio.

How big a triangle it takes

Gauss proved that a surface-dweller can read the curvature off a triangle's angles. Doing it is another matter: a fifty-kilometre triangle has 5.49 seconds of excess, a one-second theodolite gives that excess a standard deviation of 1.73, and reading K to one per cent needs a side of 281 kilometres. Not one of the great surveys built a triangle within a factor of three of that.

impossibility · Curvature Going out and coming back, at three orders. A point three degrees from the central meridian, taken forward into the projection and back again with the series truncated at the same order both ways, and the ground distance between where it started and where it returned. The second-order pair is out by a tenth of a metre at some latitudes; the third by half a millimetre; the fourth — the order every national grid formula in ordinary use is written to — by 0.39 mm. The dips are where one of the two series passes through a node, not where the map is better.

The inverse of the series is not the series of the inverse

Transverse Mercator on an ellipsoid has no closed form, so every national grid computes it as a truncated series. There are two of them — one out and one back — and they are separate approximations. Composing them does not give the identity: at the order every grid formula in ordinary use is written to, a point three degrees from the central meridian comes back 0.39 mm north of where it started.

families · Ellipsoid The same address length, a tenth of the area. Every cell of a lon/lat quadtree at level 4 carries an identifier of the same length. The heavy curve is each cell's area as a fraction of the largest, against its latitude: a polar cell is 10.2 times smaller than an equatorial one. The light curve is the inverse of the cell's aspect ratio, which falls from 1.00 near the equator to 0.10 at the top — the cells stop being anything like square long before they stop being usable.

An address is an area

A cell identifier does not name a place, it names a region — so its precision is an area rather than a length. On the obvious lon/lat scheme that area varies by a factor of 10 at level 4 and 163 at level 8, and the factor doubles with every level: the same identifier length means less ground the further north it is used.

applied · Cells 10,000 observations of one place, averaged 120 times. Left: 400 single observations of the same place, with a 60-kilometre standard deviation east and north, drawn across ±400 km. They are scattered about the truth and their average is unbiased on the ground. Right: 120 independent averages of 10,000 such observations each, computed on the page and taken back to the ground, drawn across ±1.8 km. The cloud is tight, as averaging ten thousand things should make it, and it is not centred on the cross: it sits 489 m away, against 403 m predicted by the projection's second derivative alone.

The average of noisy positions moves

Average sixty thousand scattered observations of one place on a Mercator map and the answer is 404 metres too far north — at every sample size, because it is a bias and not noise. The same average on the Lambert cylindrical equal-area is 404 metres too far south, the two being ½ (σ²/R) tan φ and its exact negative, and on the plate carrée it is not displaced at all.

distortion · Precision What a 3-figure grid reference names. The square is the 100-metre cell a 3-figure reference stands for, and the filled dot is the point the reference was made from. A reference is TRUNCATED rather than rounded, so the digits name the square's south-west corner — the open dot — which here is 9.1 metres west and 82.8 metres south of the point. Rounding would have landed on the nearest corner instead, 9.1 metres away east–west. The truncation is deliberate: it is what makes a shorter reference a larger square containing the same point.

A grid reference names a square

This ladder has priced everything about a grid except how a coordinate on it is written. A grid reference is truncated rather than rounded, so it names the south-west corner of a square rather than a point in it — and a population of references is displaced half a cell each way, which is a bias rather than scatter and does not average out.

practice · Grid A chain of stations, its positions' uncertainty and its baselines'. Nine stations held at the left-hand one, with every neighbour, second neighbour and third neighbour observed. The filled ellipses are each station's own uncertainty, which grows without limit as the chain runs away from the point it is held at — 7.5 mm at the near end and 574 mm at the far. The open ellipses above each leg are the uncertainty of the baseline, drawn at the same scale: they hardly grow at all, because almost everything that is wrong with one end is wrong with the other in the same direction.

The difference of two coordinates

Three essays give a single coordinate a width. Every practical use of one is a difference of two — a distance, a bearing, a movement, an area — and the width of a difference is not the two widths combined, because the errors are not independent. Far from its datum a one-leg baseline is six times more certain than the positions it joins.

distortion · Precision Four layouts, the same five stations, the same ten distances. Every panel has five stations, all ten distances between them, the same instrument precision and the same three degrees of freedom. The ellipses are the error ellipses of the adjusted coordinates, drawn at one common exaggeration, and they are computed from the geometry and the weights alone — no observation value enters any of them. The worst semi-axis runs from 11.1 millimetres to 232, a factor of 20.9, and the difference is entirely where the marks were put.

The network's answer is decided before it is measured

Nine rungs measure what an adjustment does with observations. Every quantity a specification is written about — the error ellipses, the redundancy numbers, the smallest detectable blunder — is a function of the geometry and the weights alone, and does not contain an observed value anywhere. Four layouts of five stations with the same ten distances differ by a factor of 20.9 in their worst coordinate.

practice · Reduction A finer grid makes a measured slope worse. The error in the direction of steepest ascent, against the spacing the field was sampled at, for four noise levels. With exact values the curve falls at a fitted slope of 2.00 — second order, which is what a central difference is. Add noise and the same curve turns over: a finite difference divides the noise by the spacing, so halving the grid doubles the noise in the slope while quartering an error that was already negligible. The minimum is where the two meet, and it is not at the fine end.

The slope of a field that was measured

Three rungs differentiate a formula, which is what makes the projection the only thing under test. A real field is a grid of numbers with an error on each of them, and differencing such a thing divides the noise by the spacing — so a finer grid gives a worse slope, there is a best spacing, and it is the cube root of the noise.

distortion · Gradient A transformation is more certain in some places than others. The horizontal position uncertainty a Helmert transformation carries, from the stated widths of its own seven parameters, along three meridians. It runs from 40 mm to 68 mm — a factor of 1.71 — and it falls towards the poles, because the rotation terms act on the distance from the Earth's axis. A single figure quoted for "the accuracy of the transformation" is the value at some latitude nobody wrote down.

The seven parameters have their own uncertainty

Nine essays on this ladder print a datum transformation as seven exact numbers. Every published set is the output of a least-squares fit and arrives with standard errors as much a part of the result as the parameters — and pushing those widths through to the ground gives an ellipse, not a number, that is 68 mm across at the equator and 43 mm at 70°.

datums · Datum One unit of a vector tile, in metres of ground. A vector tile's coordinates are integers on a lattice 4096 units across the tile, and the tile halves at every level, so one unit is a distance that halves too: 5.48 m at z10 and 0.086 m at z16, at 55°. It is also a different distance at every latitude, by cos φ, because the tile is in Web Mercator — the same factor that makes a grid metre a different quantity of ground at every latitude, arriving in the file format rather than in the projection.

A vector tile has an integer grid

Six essays on this ladder treat a vector tile as the thing a raster tile is not: geometry, resolution-free, styled at draw time. Its coordinates are integers on a lattice 4,096 units across a tile, the tile halves at every level, and at 55° north one unit is 88 metres at zoom 6 and 21 millimetres at zoom 18.

applied · Screen How many projections the map could be in. The number of candidates whose residual sits below the measurement noise, against the size of the region, at four noise levels. At one per cent of the map's width — a hand-digitised graticule — a four-degree region admits ten of the twenty candidates and a forty-degree one admits exactly one. Every curve falls, none of them crosses another, and all four end at one: identification works, and what it needs is extent rather than precision.

The answer is a set

Eight rungs have produced a best fit — one projection, ranked first, with a margin. A best fit without a spread is not a measurement, and the spread is free: a control point has a width, and every candidate whose residual is inside that width has not been ruled out. At one per cent noise a four-degree region admits ten of twenty candidates and a forty-degree one admits exactly one.

wrong · Identify

The error ellipse is not an ellipse

Rung two pushed a covariance through a projection with the same matrix sandwich that draws an indicatrix. That is a first-order operation on a map with a second derivative, so the propagated distribution is not the ellipse the sandwich draws — and a nominal 95 per cent ellipse holds 93.06 per cent on one projection and 95.63 on another, in opposite directions, from the same input.

distortion · Precision

The renderer runs out of numbers before the zoom does

Eleven essays price the pyramid in exact arithmetic. The pipeline that draws it carries single precision, where a world coordinate near the antimeridian quantises to two metres — at every zoom, because the number does not get smaller when the pixel does. At zoom 22 that is fifty-four pixels.

applied · Screen

The parameters are not independent

Rung seven gives the seven parameters their own uncertainty and stops at seven numbers. There are twenty-eight, and the twenty-one nobody publishes are not small: a translation and the rotation that mimics it correlate at 0.94, the normal matrix has a condition number of 4 × 10¹⁶, and propagating from the diagonal alone overstates the transformation's uncertainty by up to a factor of thirty-six.

datums · Datum

The error that does not average down

Five rungs give a coordinate a width, and all five assume the observations it was averaged from are independent. They are not. Under the noise spectrum every published analysis of a position time series reports, the standard error falls as the eleventh root rather than the square root — so a factor of ten costs a hundred observations if the noise is white and a thousand million if it is not.

distortion · Precision

A length measured from noisy points is too long

A distance is a square root, a square root is concave, and the average of the distances is not the distance between the averages. The gap is a bias with one sign: 37 microns on a ten-metre baseline with twenty-millimetre marks, following σ² over the length across two decades, and it adds rather than cancelling — so the same boundary is 1.5 parts per million longer when it is measured in more pieces.

distortion · Precision

The area is unbiased and the perimeter is not

A boundary measured from noisy vertices comes out long, always, by σ²/d on every leg. The area enclosed by the same vertices comes out exactly right, because a shoelace is bilinear and the cross terms vanish. So densifying a boundary makes its area five times more precise and its perimeter three thousand times more wrong, and every compactness score computed from it falls short.

distortion · Precision

Rounding is not noise

Eight rungs treat a coordinate's error as noise that averages down. A published coordinate has a second error that does not: it is deterministic, it is shared between every point in the same cell, and at five centimetres apart ninety-three per cent of pairs come out as the same place — which no amount of independent noise can produce.

distortion · Precision

Named alongside it

The objects these essays reach for when they reach for this one.

ToleranceVerificationCovarianceLeast-squaresConventionQuantisationError budgetError ellipseBiasClosed formConformalityScale factor

All concepts