Cartographic Projection
every map is wrong, and by exactly how much
Figure

The shortest crossing that never goes more than 745 km from an airfield

Drawn here at the parameters it defaults to, with every essay that calls it.
The shortest crossing that never goes more than 745 km from an airfield. New York to London, drawn on a conformal conic, with a circle of 745 km round each of twenty airfields on both sides of the North Atlantic. The dashed line is the great circle, 5,540 km. The solid line is the shortest route that stays inside the circles, 5,698 km — 158 km or 2.85 per cent longer — and it bends only where two circles cross: between Narsarsuaq and Keflavík; Keflavík and Vágar. Nowhere else can it bend, because anywhere else a straight cut stays inside a circle.

New York to London, drawn on a conformal conic, with a circle of 745 km round each of twenty airfields on both sides of the North Atlantic. The dashed line is the great circle, 5,540 km. The solid line is the shortest route that stays inside the circles, 5,698 km — 158 km or 2.85 per cent longer — and it bends only where two circles cross: between Narsarsuaq and Keflavík; Keflavík and Vágar. Nowhere else can it bend, because anywhere else a straight cut stays inside a circle.

It is one of 12 figures drawn by the same construction, and the drawing above is this one with nothing changed.

8 essays call it. Every call below passes it something, because a placement that passes nothing draws whichever member of the family the generator happens to default to rather than the one its essay argues about.

Where it is called

Changing this changes every one of these figures.

The shortest crossing that never goes more than 745 km from an airfield. New York to London, drawn on a conformal conic, with a circle of 745 km round each of twenty airfields on both sides of the North Atlantic. The dashed line is the great circle, 5,540 km. The solid line is the shortest route that stays inside the circles, 5,698 km — 158 km or 2.85 per cent longer — and it bends only where two circles cross: between Narsarsuaq and Keflavík; Keflavík and Vágar. Nowhere else can it bend, because anywhere else a straight cut stays inside a circle. Paths and directions

The rule that keeps a route near land is pinned at both ends

A crossing that may never be more than a stated distance from an airfield is refused below one radius and free above another, and each wall is set by a single feature of the ocean. Between them the price falls continuously, with corners and no jumps — and at the lower wall it falls as the square root of the allowance, so the first kilometre is worth twelve of route.

 In a wind every circle moves upwind, and the route moves with them. New York to London with the sixty-minute allowance at a stated one-engine speed of 745 km/h. In still air every airfield's circle has a radius of 745 km, drawn faint and dashed. In a northerly of 150 km/h the places from which each airfield can be reached in sixty minutes form a circle of the same radius moved 150 km upwind, drawn solid. The dashed route is the shortest the still-air rule allows, 5,698 km; from one point of it the quickest diversion in this wind takes 68.7 minutes. The solid route stays inside the moved circles, 5,765 km, and its longest diversion takes 60.8 minutes — the sixty the moved circles stand for, to within what the Earth's curvature does to a wind that keeps one bearing. Paths and directions

A diversion allowance in a wind is the same circle, moved upwind

A diversion rule written in minutes is turned into a distance by assuming still air. In a uniform wind the places from which an airfield can be reached in sixty minutes are not a stretched region but the still-air circle moved upwind by the wind's run. A 150 km/h northerly makes the still-air route across the North Atlantic need a diversion of 68.7 minutes, a southerly makes it 54.0 — and the least radius at which the ocean can be crossed barely moves.

 In a jet the sixty-minute sets stop moving together. The North Atlantic airfields with a southerly jet of 200 km/h whose core, the solid line, runs north past the southern tip of Greenland; dotted lines mark where it has slowed to 150, 100 and 50 km/h. Faint dashed circles are the still-air sets of 745 km. Solid outlines are the places within sixty minutes of each airfield in the jet, computed as quickest flights through it: each is a circle moved by the wind it meets, and airfields on opposite sides of a gap meet different winds. The least allowance at which New York is joined to London moves from 624.7 km of still-air radius to 587.7 (−36.9 km), pinned between Goose Bay–Narsarsuaq, whose sets first touch at the marked point. A uniform southerly of the same speed moves it +3.0 km. Paths and directions

A jet moves the floor that a uniform wind cannot

A uniform wind leaves the least radius at which the North Atlantic can be crossed almost where it was, because it blows the same way on both halves of every gap between airfields. A jet does not. A southerly of 200 km/h past the southern tip of Greenland lowers that floor by 36.9 kilometres, the same jet 400 kilometres further west raises it by 23.3, and one integral of the wind along each gap predicts every such move to within a few kilometres.

 A fast stretch over one half of a gap, with nothing changed across the jet. A jet of 100 km/h blowing along the Goose Bay–Narsarsuaq gap, carrying a streak that reaches 300 km/h over a stretch about 1,000 km long, centred 500 km from the gap's midpoint on the Goose Bay side. The dotted bands are where the wind has slowed to 150, 100 and 50 km/h, and they are drawn from the jet's own cross-section — nothing about it changes across the flow. The solid outlines are the places within sixty minutes of each airfield. The least allowance at which New York is joined to London is 665.6 km of still-air radius against the plain jet's 624.7 — a move of +40.9 km, pinned between Goose Bay–Iqaluit. Paths and directions

A streak along the jet moves the floor while the crossing is flown

The diversion floor answers only to the difference between the wind on a gap's two halves, and every case so far produced that difference by moving a jet sideways. A jet carrying a streak — a thousand kilometres of core markedly faster than the rest — produces the same difference with nothing changed across the flow at all, and moves the floor by up to 43 km where the same jet at one speed along its whole length moves it by ten metres. Plotted against the half-integral difference the two geometries fall on one line: the floor cannot tell them apart. And because a streak drifts with the flow, the allowance an operator must satisfy is 30 km higher than the one the departure analysis reported.

 The floor against where the streak is, and the stretch of it a crossing sweeps. The diversion floor for the New York–London chain with a streak 200 km/h faster than a 100 km/h jet core, against where along the jet the streak's centre lies, computed exactly on a grid of positions 125 km apart and read between them. With the streak far off the floor is the plain jet's, 624.7 km. With it over the Goose Bay half it rises by up to 41.1; over the Narsarsuaq half it falls by up to 44.8. The bar is the stretch a streak starting at -1400 km sweeps in a four-hour crossing at 250 km/h; the floor to be met is the worst on it, 666.0 km. The shaded band either side is a forecast position error of ±200 km at one standard deviation. Paths and directions

A forecast's error in where the streak is becomes a margin

A jet streak drifting along a gap moves the diversion floor by up to forty kilometres during a crossing, and an operator knows where the streak is only from a forecast. Planned to the worst over the forecast's own crossing window, the floor needs a margin of about eight kilometres for every hundred of error in the streak's position, and stops paying for itself against simply ignoring the streak near an error of two hundred and fifty. Planned to the departure analysis alone, it is worse than ignoring the streak at any error at all.

 Nineteen forecasts of one crossing, and the floor each says must be met. One crossing, with the forecast's error in where the streak starts at 150 km and in its drift speed at 50 km/h. The line is the worst floor over a four-hour crossing against where the streak starts, at the assumed drift of 250 km/h. Dots: nineteen ensemble members, each drawn with its own start and drift speed and placed at the worst floor its own crossing window meets. Open circle: the truth, 660.3 km. Square: the ensemble's centre, 640.3 km. Dashed: the centre's floor plus the fixed margin that covers 95 per cent of crossings at these errors, 653.3 km. Solid: the highest member, 663.2 km — the plan the ensemble gives with no margin added. Paths and directions

An ensemble carries its own margin, if its spread is honest

A fixed margin of about eight kilometres for every hundred of forecast error covers the diversion floor in nineteen crossings of twenty, but it needs the error's size and it is spent on every crossing alike. Nineteen forecasts of the same crossing need neither. If the truth is one more draw from the spread they come from, the highest of them covers the floor met in nineteen crossings in twenty by rank alone — whatever the error, the streak or the drift — and it holds a fifth to two fifths less in hand than the fixed margin, because it spends nothing on the crossings the streak cannot reach. What it cannot do is notice that its own spread is too small: at half the true spread it covers 88 in a hundred.

 A season of crossings pins the stretch to a tenth only if it learns from where the streak was. The share of 400 seasons at each length whose learned stretch lies within a tenth of 1.25. From the floors' rank histogram: 25 crossings 19 per cent, 50 crossings 27 per cent, 100 crossings 32 per cent, 200 crossings 43 per cent, 400 crossings 55 per cent, 800 crossings 67 per cent. From where the streak turned out to be: 25 crossings 56, 50 crossings 72, 100 crossings 85, 200 crossings 98, 400 crossings 99, 800 crossings 100. At a hundred crossings, 85 against 32 per cent. Paths and directions

A season learns the stretch from where the streak was, not from the floors

An ensemble whose members spread four fifths as widely as the forecast's real error covers the diversion floor in 94 crossings of a hundred instead of 95, and the repair is to stretch every member away from the centre by a factor learned from past crossings. Learned the way the rank histogram teaches it — from where the truth's floor fell among the members' floors — a season of a hundred crossings lands within a tenth of the right stretch one time in three, and a season of eight hundred two times in three. Learned from where the streak turned out to be, which the analysis after each crossing supplies whether the streak reached the gap or not, a hundred crossings land within a tenth 85 times in a hundred and two hundred almost always. The floor is the quantity the plan is about; it is the wrong quantity to learn the spread from.

 After a revision narrows the ensemble, a learner that never forgets is still well short of the new stretch three hundred crossings later. The stretch each learner holds before each crossing, the median over 400 winters, from 100 crossings before a forecast revision to 300 after it. Before it the members spread 0.8 of the truth's spread and the right stretch is 1.25; after it they spread 0.6 and the right stretch is 1.667 (dashed). never forgets: 1.28 at 25 crossings, 1.34 at 100, 1.44 at 300; memory 200: 1.31 at 25 crossings, 1.44 at 100, 1.59 at 300; memory 50: 1.42 at 25 crossings, 1.62 at 100, 1.68 at 300; restarts on the date: 1.63 at 25 crossings, 1.67 at 100, 1.67 at 300. Shaded: the middle eight winters in ten for the learner with a memory of 50 crossings, 1.55–1.78 at the end. Paths and directions

A revised forecast is relearned in as many crossings as the learner remembers

An ensemble's stretch is a property of the forecast system, and forecast systems are revised. When a revision narrows the members from four fifths of the real spread to three fifths, a learner that weights every crossing since the start of the winter equally still holds 1.44 for a new stretch of 1.67 three hundred crossings later, and leaves the plan under the floor in 93.8 crossings of a hundred instead of 95. A learner that forgets regains ninety-five per cent coverage after about as many crossings as its memory — 31, 57, 113 and 206 for memories of 25, 50, 100 and 200 — and pays for forgetting only when nothing has changed. A memory of fifty costs nothing measurable over a winter. And a bias the whole ensemble shares, which the stretch alone reads as extra spread, is found to a kilometre by a learner that tracks the mean departure as well.

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