Cartographic Projection
every map is wrong, and by exactly how much
Concept

Candidate — where it appears

One of the projections a fitting procedure tries when it is asked which projection drew a map. The set of them is a library, and a truth outside the library produces a confident wrong answer unless a rejection threshold has been set from the residual distribution.

Named by 3 essays across one field — each of them below, with the objects they name alongside it.

Every candidate fitted to one map's graticule, ranked by what is left over. The map is drawn in Conformal conic over a region 40° tall centred at 45° north, and the projection is not told to the fit. Each candidate is evaluated at the same 121 graticule crossings, its own parameters are searched, the best plane similarity between its output and the picture is removed, and what remains is drawn as a proportion of the map's own width on a logarithmic scale. Conformal conic fits to 1.3e-10, which is the arithmetic's floor; the next candidate is 3.7e+7 times worse.

A map does not say what it is

Every map on this site is one the site drew, from a projection it chose. Every map a reader has ever used is the other kind — a picture whose projection is a sentence in a corner, a legend, or nothing at all. The graticule is enough to recover it: fit every candidate to the crossings and rank what is left over.

wrong · Identify The same ranking, with the right answer removed from the library. A map drawn in Mercator, fitted by every candidate except Mercator. Something still wins: Conformal conic, by a factor of 1.64 over the runner-up, leaving 0.4 per cent of the map's width unexplained. With Mercator in the library the winner's margin is 1.2e+13. The ranking always produces a name; what tells the two situations apart is how far ahead the name is.

When the answer is not in the library

Fitting twenty candidates to a map and ranking the residuals always produces a winner, which makes it a ceremony unless it can also produce a refusal. Held out of its own library, a Mercator map is named as a conformal conic, leaving 0.4 per cent of the map's width unexplained — and the quantity that tells the two situations apart is not the residual but the margin, which is 1.6 when the truth is absent and 10¹³ when it is present.

wrong · Identify What each configuration can see, and what it cannot. The smallest eigenvalue of the fit's own normal matrix — how much the residual changes for a unit move in the worst direction of parameter space — for three parameterised candidates against six configurations of the same size. A zero is not a hard fit: it is a direction the control points cannot see at all, so every value of the parameter along it gives an identical residual. 2 of 18 are at the floor of double precision, and they are not the ones a reader would guess. Where none is, the spread between the best and worst arrangement is still Infinity at a fixed point count.

Where the control points are

Five rungs fit a library to a map and ask how much to trust the winner. None asks whether the parameters are recoverable at all. On control points along one parallel an equirectangular's standard parallel is not merely hard to find — it is invisible, exactly, and five hundred and twelve points on the same parallel are as blind as eight.

wrong · Identify

Named alongside it

The objects these essays reach for when they reach for this one.

Least-squaresProjection identificationResidualCone constantIdentifiabilityInverse problemMap metadataSimilarity transformationVerificationAssertionAuditCommon point

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