Every essay — page 16
What the numbers refer to
The strain a map adds to the ground's
A ground carried rigidly at forty millimetres a year deforms nothing, and read off a Mercator sheet at sixty degrees north it reports 10.9 nanostrain a year. Along a profile through a real boundary the invented part is 0.0 per cent of the answer where the zone is loud and 884 per cent where it is quiet.
What a machine does with it
The renderer runs out of numbers before the zoom does
Eleven essays price the pyramid in exact arithmetic. The pipeline that draws it carries single precision, where a world coordinate near the antimeridian quantises to two metres — at every zoom, because the number does not get smaller when the pixel does. At zoom 22 that is fifty-four pixels.
What is taught wrongly
A residual cannot count the pieces of a map
A compiled map does not say how many sheets went into it, and trying every count and keeping the best fit cannot tell. Seven pieces always fit better than two, because they contain them. A criterion that charges ln N for each number a piece spends recovers the true count in every trial, for one copied stretch and for two, until the digitising error reaches a thousandth of the map. AIC charges two and takes every piece it is offered. And an eased copy defeats the right criterion the other way: it is not a projection, so BIC buys pieces to explain it, three seams, then four, then six.
Paths and directions
Tonight's residuals measure tonight's air badly and weight tonight's fix well
A week of twilights learns the typical refraction share and nothing about tonight's, and a share that changes from night to night costs more than the week buys. With the sextant's error taken from the week, one twilight's residuals estimate tonight's share alone — badly: within half again of the truth 43 times in a hundred with three bodies near the horizon, and zero 22 times. Used as a weight, that poor estimate costs the fix between two and four per cent whatever the night, so it beats the typical share once nights differ by more than half again, and a blend of the two, leaning on tonight as the nights grow more variable, beats both. A weather predictor has to explain most of the nightly change to do better.
Grids, and what a survey does
The archipelago rule moves water between regimes, not between states
The eighteen baseline systems the archipelago article allows on a stated archipelago differ by 27,585 square kilometres of water inside the lines. Measured outward, as the Convention measures every zone, the difference almost vanishes: whatever a system takes inside it gives up from the zone outside, and water inside plus zone outside differs by 993 square kilometres, seven hundredths of a per cent. Against a straight neighbouring coast on any side, the equidistance line does not move at all, because a baseline's nearest point to a straight coast is always an island. Only a neighbour facing the middle of a gap feels the choice — 2,112 square kilometres at thirty kilometres off, 688 at 250.
The families
The land would move Goode's lobes before his join
Goode chose his lobes by eye: where the cuts run and where each lobe's meridian sits. Scored on the land outside Antarctica and found exactly on a five-degree grid, the land's own layout at his count of two lobes north and four south deforms it by 14.48° against his 16.51° — two degrees, more than his meridians were worth in the first place — while its cuts cross less land than his: 2,057 kilometres against 2,391, the worst of them 1,056 against the 1,946 his northern cut spends on Greenland. The land wants the map's edge in the Atlantic and its northern cut in the Pacific. His fourth southern lobe is worth four hundredths of a degree, and once the lobes are the land's the best join climbs again, to sixty degrees.
Grids, and what a survey does
One survey cannot tell an optimistic report from a moved mark
A local survey that carries its control's published covariance can estimate, from its own residuals, how far that covariance understates the truth. With five control stations the estimate has a standard deviation of 3.8 times the published scale, and a single monument moved five centimetres adds about as much again — four times what a report twice too optimistic would add. Run at the scale it estimated for itself, the honest test stops flooding good surveys with alarms, and names a moved mark seven times in a hundred instead of twenty-five: the move inflates the estimate and the estimate absorbs the move. The report can be checked only across surveys, and telling one twice too optimistic from an honest one takes about two hundred of them with five stations each, or fifty with twelve.
The impossibility
The second cut goes across the sea
With two islands and one cut, the island that would cost the sea most alone names the cut. With three islands and two cuts, the obvious rule — cut the two dearest — names the best pair in only 23 of 40 seas, and loses up to 23 points of what three cuts would buy. It fails when the two dearest sit on the same side of the sea, where their cuts do each other's work. The best pair keeps the dearest island in 37 of 40; its partner is the island across the centre from it, which is right in 32 of 40 and never costs more than 12 points. A cut joining two islands is never worth a second cut to the sea.
What each projection optimises
The band names the exponent for a compact region, and not for a thin one
A tolerance band is best served by the mean departure when it is tight and by the least worst case when it is wide. Read as a fraction of the region's own least worst departure, the band decides which, and the region's size drops out: a square, a triangle or a hexagon at 10°, 25° or 40° switches from one to the other at nine tenths, and a surveyor told only that loses at most two points of area on every compact region but the degenerate cap. A thin ellipse does not switch. From six tenths upward it is served best by exponents in between, and any rule with two exponents in it gives up five to seven points there, wherever its switch is put.
What the numbers refer to
A vertical rate needs a height system
Four rungs of this anchor measure the two-by-two horizontal tensor, because that is what a tangent chart returns. The larger signal in a subsiding basin is vertical — 126 nanoradians a year of tilt against 0.76 nanostrain a year of horizontal strain — and it is not a measurement at all until the surface it is measured against is named, because that surface is moving too.
What a machine does with it
The query a fast path actually answers
Fifteen rungs price what a stored coordinate means and none asks what it is searched with. No index answers "within two hundred kilometres of here"; an index answers "inside this rectangle of stored coordinates", and the rectangle is built by somebody's arithmetic — which at 55° north silently drops a tenth of the true answer on a conformal projection and three fifths of it on an equal-area one.
Measuring distortion
Every density can be met and none is free
Four maps of the same data, all of them correct, charging between 57.6° and 104.4° of angular deformation for it. There is no such thing as the cartogram of a density — there is an infinite family, and somebody picked a member of it without saying so.
Paths and directions
A reach set drawn from the river's outline is a bound again
Beside a bending river, a fan of bearings drawn with straight chords claims a strip of water, and the drawing stops being a lower bound. The fan's own numbers cannot repair it: what a bearing records about the river is where the bridges are, not where the bends are, and the best a rule built from them does is cut the over-claim by seven eighths while giving up twenty times as much ground. The river's outline repairs it exactly. Cutting each bearing at the first bank costs three and a half times the over-claim it removes; keeping the chords wherever a route over one bridge reaches costs one and a half. Drawn from the outline and the bridges with no fan at all, that route set misses 6.4 per cent of the reachable ground where the fan misses 35.
What is taught wrongly
A strip of triangles carries the sphere's error to the next base
One triangle cannot tell a substituted sphere from a bad base: both leave the computed side a few parts per million long. A triangulation is not one triangle but a strip, each computed side the next one's base, and along it the two come apart completely. A bad base is one factor, the same at every triangle. A sphere's error is made afresh in each triangle and the strip adds it up, and what it adds up to at the far end is exactly the change in that sphere's own meridian scale between the two ends — 158 parts per million for the conformal sphere over twenty triangles north from 45°, predicted to half a part. Along a parallel it is nothing; at a check base three triangles on it is already three times the noise of one-second angles.
What each projection optimises
The pass was a map meeting itself
Four measurements fitted a power law to the depth of the pass that splits a near-optimal set of aspects, and found it tight — R-squared of 0.98 for Robinson, 0.996 along most of a family of maps. On the grid those aspects were searched over, a pole row holds every normal-aspect map twelve times at cells that are not neighbours, and in 28 of Robinson's 36 regions the published pass was two copies of one map meeting through the map one step round the axis. Joined as the one map they are, Robinson's curve falls to R-squared 0.008, and the sinusoidal's famous refusal turns out to be the one measurement the copies never reached.
The families
The ocean centres its lobes on the land's cuts, and cannot keep its own cuts short
Run on the water instead of the land, the same exact search gives an interrupted homolosine whose lobes sit on the Pacific, the Atlantic and the Indian Ocean — five of its six central meridians within twenty degrees of a cut the land's own layout chose — and it deforms the water by 13.31° against the 19.75° the land's layout gives it. The inversion stops at the cuts. Every meridian on Earth crosses at least 7,172 kilometres of water, so the ocean's map has no layout whose cuts stay under seven thousand, where the land's went below nine hundred. And no layout serves both: none comes within 2.57° of both optima at once, though a single wide Pacific lobe buys the water 2.8° for a tenth of a degree of land.
The impossibility
A levelling loop weighs the root, and a triangle weighs the mountain
A mountain range is carried partly by a root of light crust beneath it, and a survey that knows the ground can ask how much. Put a root thirty kilometres down under a stated range and it moves a levelling loop's misclosure by 85 per cent as much as the mountains' own rock does, and a triangle's excess by 16 per cent: the root's gravity is a smoothed copy of the ground, and a smoothed copy crosses the contours. Read against their noise, pinning the root's share to a tenth takes about 2,700 fifty-kilometre loops, a million triangles or 550 astronomic stations — and if the rock's density is unknown too, a triangle cannot tell a compensated mountain from a lighter one.
What a machine does with it
A cell's children do not fit inside it
Ten rungs price one cell system at one resolution, and every one of them is used hierarchically. A hexagonal hierarchy does not nest: at the aperture-seven scheme the discrete global grids use, one fourteenth of a parent is covered by no child of its own, exactly, and each of the six ring children is eleven twelfths inside.
What the numbers refer to
Every country's zero is a different surface
Ten rungs measure a height against a geoid and treat the geoid as one object. No national datum is on it: each is pinned to the mean sea level at one tide gauge, the sea surface stands up to two metres from the geoid, and the eight European zeros measured here spread over 462 millimetres — a step no levelling can remove and nobody's error.
Measuring distortion
A map that meets its target can fold
The flow a diffusion cartogram integrates is a diffeomorphism at every instant and cannot fold. Every discretisation of it can, and the point at which one does is a root of a quadratic — written down rather than searched for.
What is taught wrongly
An adjustment hides the sphere only in a strip of equal triangles
A strip computed on a substituted sphere drifts by the sphere's own stretch, 315 parts per million over forty triangles north from 45°, and an adjustment that closes it on a second base takes almost all of that away: in a strip of equal triangles what is left is the stretch less a straight line, 0.63 parts per million, a third-order bow sixty times below the noise of the old angles. A real chain is not made of equal triangles. The adjustment spreads the misclosure by how uncertain each triangle's angles are, the sphere put it in by how far north each triangle reaches, and the difference is a first-order residual that never clears the noise at any one side and that the old network's own geometry predicts exactly — so a re-observation matched against it reads the sphere at seven standard deviations.
What each projection optimises
Two maps and the line between them do the work of every exponent
A conformal map's log scale is linear in its coefficients, so every blend of the map that minimises the mean departure and the least worst map is itself a conformal map, available the moment the two are solved. Searched along that one line for each band, the blend keeps within 0.17 points of the best of twelve exponents on every compact region and beats all twelve by up to 1.35 on the square; it trails by 1.5 at most on the thinnest ellipse and 0.74 on four regions with a bay, where the rule of switching between the two ends gave up as much as 7.1. The family's middle members lie up to two thirds of their own departure off the line. The line does not reproduce them; it does their work.
Paths and directions
An ensemble carries its own margin, if its spread is honest
A fixed margin of about eight kilometres for every hundred of forecast error covers the diversion floor in nineteen crossings of twenty, but it needs the error's size and it is spent on every crossing alike. Nineteen forecasts of the same crossing need neither. If the truth is one more draw from the spread they come from, the highest of them covers the floor met in nineteen crossings in twenty by rank alone — whatever the error, the streak or the drift — and it holds a fifth to two fifths less in hand than the fixed margin, because it spends nothing on the crossings the streak cannot reach. What it cannot do is notice that its own spread is too small: at half the true spread it covers 88 in a hundred.
The impossibility
A loop reads a root's depth from its own pattern, and a triangle reads none of it
A levelling loop and a geodetic triangle respond to a buried root in proportions that change with its depth, so their ratio looked like a gauge of how deep a range is compensated. It is not, because a triangle's response to a root at 30 km is a hundredth of its own noise. The depth is there in the loops alone: a root changes the pattern of misclosures from loop to loop as it deepens, and 1,600 loops of 50 km place a 10 km root within a factor of 1.5 three times in four and a 30 km root about half the time. A 60 km root is not placed even by 6,400, and when the depth is fitted rather than stated, such a root is read as a light shallow one carrying 25 per cent of the mass where it carries 60.